A look at the XAG/USD chart shows that silver has once again moved beneath the key psychological level of $70. Price action this week has been notably uneven: trading dipped below $65 on Monday, while just a day ago, silver was priced as high as $74 per ounce.
The current volatility is largely driven by geopolitical tensions. Mixed messaging from the United States and Iran regarding potential negotiations continues to create uncertainty across financial markets. Recent reports indicate:
→ US officials insist that diplomatic discussions remain ongoing, with the Trump administration said to have sent a 15-point framework to Iran through intermediaries, aiming to de-escalate the situation and restore access through the Strait of Hormuz.
→ Meanwhile, Iran has rejected the idea of negotiations with the US, dismissing the ceasefire proposal and presenting its own set of demands instead.
During our analysis of the XAG/USD chart on the morning of 19 March, we:
→ assessed that the market was experiencing sustained downside pressure;
→ constructed a descending channel (highlighted in red) on the price chart;
→ anticipated that the median line of this channel would act as resistance in the short term, supporting the validity of the structure.
Subsequent price behaviour aligned with this outlook, as illustrated by the arrows:
→ the lower boundary provided support within the same trading session;
→ later, price reversed downward from the median line, which transitioned from support to resistance — further confirming the bearish tone seen throughout March.
From the bullish standpoint:
→ the move below the 6 February low near $64 may signal aggressive positioning, with “smart money” potentially accumulating liquidity in this area in anticipation of higher prices;
→ there is also the possibility of an inverse head and shoulders formation developing.
That said, as long as the price remains below the median line of the current descending channel, it is difficult to argue for a strong bullish shift in market sentiment.
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