This is not a normal year for precious metals, and silver has been even wilder than gold. That’s why J.P. Morgan’s latest call on where silver could land in 2026 jumped to the top of my notebook.
J.P. Morgan Global Research now expects silver to average about $81 per ounce in 2026, more than double its 2025 average.
The bank’s own 2026 market outlook says silver prices are “forecast to rise toward $58/oz. by the fourth quarter” in its base scenario, but follow‑up commentary and client notes cited by outlets such as InvestingLive and Pintu highlight a more aggressive internal path, with average prices around $81 as tight supply and strong demand bite.
When I look at silver’s recent history, that call does not feel theoretical. You do not get a forecast like $81 without a story that big behind it.
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How J.P. Morgan is reframing silver for 2026
In J.P. Morgan’s own silver outlook, the bank, in its 2026 call, references three drivers to which I pay close attention as a personal finance reporter.
- First, it leans heavily on industrial demand, especially from solar, electric vehicles, and electronics. J.P. Morgan’s forecast notes that silver’s role in the industrial sector and as a safe‑haven asset when volatility spikes are both central to the $81 average projection.
- Second, it points to what 2025 already did to the starting point. Silver rose more than 130% in 2025, climbing from roughly $29 per ounce into “much higher price territory,” according to J.P. Morgan Global Research. That move happened as investors looked for hedges against inflation, interest‑rate uncertainty, and regional conflicts that pushed money into safe‑haven trades.
- Third, it acknowledges that investor flows have added fuel. J.P. Morgan’s research team attributes a big slice of the move to investors treating silver as both an inflation hedge and a high‑beta way to express views on gold and real rates.
Related: What a Warsh Fed means for your gold and silver portfolio
The key number to keep in mind is that $81 average. J.P. Morgan’s research division says that would be more than double the previous year’s average and would keep silver well above any historical range most retail investors are used to, based on the way InvestingLive summarized the report.
If you own silver already, this is not a “maybe it will nudge a little higher” story. It is a full re‑rating.
The path from 2025’s spike to 2026’s target
Whenever I see a forecast that big, I want to know what the starting line looked like.
Silver ended 2025 at $2,416.62 per kilogram, up 148% from the prior year, StrategicMetalsInvest highlighted. That same data set shows silver jumping from about $973 per kilogram at the start of 2025 to that $2,416 level by year‑end, which matches the “more than 130 percent” 2025 gain J.P. Morgan references in its outlook.
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Standard Chartered adds more color on how fast things got weird. Silver gained roughly 171% from the start of 2025 into early January 2026 and hit an intraday high near $80 per ounce, with prices pressing against key resistance in the low‑$80s, the bank noted.
The World Gold Council’s data hub and IMF figures compiled by YCharts show silver at around $30 per ounce a year ago and roughly $201 per ounce in January 2026, a 563% year‑on‑year jump on a monthly average basis, although that reflects the most extreme peaks more than the day‑to‑day spot price most investors see.
When I put those numbers together with J.P. Morgan’s $81 average call, I see a bank trying to sit in the middle of a hurricane. A lot of the wind in that hurricane has come from investors reacting to escalating geopolitical tensions, layered on top of already-tight supply and strong industrial use.
What other forecasters are saying about silver
I never look at one bank in isolation, especially not with a metal this volatile.
- Reuters analyst poll: Median 2026 silver forecast near $79.50 per ounce, keeping prices far above pre‑rally norms.
- Bank of America (via NAGA): Sees 2026 peak around $65, average roughly $56.25 on industrial demand strength.
- GoldSilver.com survey: Highlights bull cases pointing toward $100-plus, after a reported 147% prior surge.
- Scottsdale Bullion and Coin: Collects 2026 forecasts clustering between $50 and $80, reflecting persistent bullish long‑term sentiment.
The risks J.P. Morgan and others are flagging
If you only read the headline number, you will miss something important in J.P. Morgan’s message.
J.P. Morgan’s own analysts are warning that the silver market “remains vulnerable to corrective pressures,” especially if prior price rises were driven more by speculation than real industrial needs, as seen in Pintu’s breakdown of the bank’s note.
The summary also highlights “high volatility” as a key risk and cites a former head of commodity strategy at the bank who warned that silver prices could experience “a sharp decline” if fundamentals do not catch up with the speculative push.
The Silver Institute expects global silver industrial fabrication to decline by about 2% in 2026 to a four‑year low, in part because manufacturers are “thrifting” by using less silver per unit in solar panels and other applications, Reuters reported.
That concept of thrifting is exactly the kind of substitution risk J.P. Morgan itself notes. The bank’s outlook flags the possibility that high prices will encourage solar manufacturers to cut silver loadings or switch to alternatives, which could cap longer‑term upside, even if 2026 still looks strong.
As someone who has to translate this for regular investors, I read that as a very clear “this can go wrong” footnote.
What it means for you if you own or are considering silver
So how do you turn all of this into a decision about your own money?
Here is how I think about it.
If J.P. Morgan is even close to right and silver averages $81 in 2026, a modest position can have an outsized impact on your portfolio.
On the flip side, J.P. Morgan’s own people are telling you not to assume this trajectory lasts forever. The warning about a possible slide back toward $50 reinforces the idea that you should expect more air pockets.
For most individual investors, I would frame it this way.
- Treat J.P. Morgan’s $81 average as a scenario, not a promise. It is a way to think about what happens with the current mix of demand, geopolitical stress‑driven safe‑haven buying, and supply tightness, not a guarantee about your 2026 statement balance.
- Size your silver allocation for the volatility you have already seen. A metal that can rise more than 130% in a year and then drop 60% month‑to‑month on IMF averages is not something you want to overweight if you lose sleep easily.
- Watch the same things J.P. Morgan is watching. That means solar build‑out, EV demand, global manufacturing trends, and the pace at which industrial users try to reduce their silver intensity.
I do not know if silver will actually average $81 in 2026.
What I do know, after reading J.P. Morgan’s research summaries and lining them up against other banks and hard price data, is that silver is no longer a sleepy sidecar to the gold trade.
It is sitting at the crossroads of industrial innovation, geopolitical anxiety, and speculative capital.
If you are going to own silver, you need to treat it with the respect you give to any asset that can change your financial year all by itself.
